The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) has predicted the convenience sector will be worth £56.2bn within five years.
IGD reports convenience experienced “limited but consistent “ growth of 1% in H1 2025, “despite eternal challenges and a subdued broader retail environment”.
The charity says the sector will grow by 2.7% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) by 2030 and national mainstream retailers are “expected to maintain a strong focus on convenience expansion”, with new site launches and increased specialisation.
The growth outlook, modest as it may be, is caveated by a prediction that tobacco and vape sales, which fell 17% in H1, will continue to decline. Retailers will increasingly need to diversify into growing channels such chilled, fresh, food-to-go and evening meals to offset lost tobacco revenues.
Symbol convenience stores continue to hold the largest share of the segment, with the IGD putting their growth at 1% on the first half of 2025, with chilled foods and soft drinks being the biggest categories winners. Fresh fruit and vegetables, frozen food and sandwiches saw H1 growth of 10%.
Store operators should also consider the increasing popularity of premium and indulgent product lines, while health-focussed stores in affluent areas are said to be acting as testbeds for wider rollout.
Patrick Mitchell Fox, senior retail analyst with the IGD, comments: “Despite the lingering pressures from declining tobacco sales and broader retail challenges, the UK convenience channel has once again proven its ability to adapt, invest, and grow.
“The sector’s strength lies in its responsiveness, whether through embracing health, indulgence, or automation and its willingness to innovate in line with evolving shopper needs. With robust forecasts to 2030 and a renewed focus on value-added categories, convenience retailing is set for a dynamic and opportunity-rich future.”
