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EVs look set to represent less than a third of the total European car fleet by the end of the decade, new research from OC&C Strategy Consultants has found.

Its Forecourts of the Future report reveals that despite recent growth in EV sales across Europe, at the current rate it is expected that EVs will only represent 27% of the car fleet in the UK by 2030, 20% of the fleet in France and just 10% of the car fleet in Spain and Italy.

These figures come despite significant growth in EV sales between 2016 to 2021, with the report revealing that EV registrations increased by 77% in the UK, 101% in Germany and a region-leading 117% in Italy during that time.

OC&C predicts that UK EV sales will grow 36% per annum from 2021 to 2026, while in Spain they will grow by 52%. Leading the region is Denmark and the Netherlands, where it is expected that EVs will account for 100% of new car sales in 2030. However, despite this impressive European growth, EVs have a long way to go before they take a significant market share from ICE vehicles across the continent.

Matt Wills, partner at OC&C Strategy Consultants, comments: “Despite impressive recent sales figures, considerable growth in ownership is needed for EVs to become dominant on European roads. Government proposals to increase the taxation of EVs, as set out in the Autumn Statement, will inevitably hinder uptake and delay the decarbonisation of UK consumer vehicles. The shift towards EVs needs effective roll out of large numbers of charging points to change consumer perceptions, with full government support. With new decarbonisation regulations on the horizon in Europe, we are on new ground for the electrification of national car fleets. The automotive industry is about to experience profound change and businesses that adapt now will be best placed to take advantage of the incoming opportunities.”