Ask anyone who’s hands-on in the UK hydrogen sector and they’ll tell you that there’s a lot more paperwork than pipelines.
While other countries are racing ahead with real deployment, the UK seems locked into pilots, consultations and funding that seldom moves beyond ambitious press releases. But if you look just beyond UK borders, the direction of travel for hydrogen is clear and it’s towards real-world deployment on a scale that can’t be ignored.
The emperor’s new clothes – and the role of retail
Behind closed doors, almost nobody in the sector genuinely believes current UK hydrogen policy will deliver scale or commercial competitiveness. There’s an “emperor’s new clothes” effect at play. Many industry participants and their trade associations depend on government funding or relationships and are understandably reluctant to openly criticise policy. The result is a lot of polite nodding in meetings and very little forward momentum.
For forecourt retailers, this ambiguity is frustrating, but it need not be the end of the story. Visit a forecourt in Germany or the Netherlands and you see clear, working hydrogen refuelling, real support and genuine partnerships between government and the private sector. The lesson is that momentum is building fast, just not yet in the UK.
The simple truth is that the UK government’s one job is to unlock hydrogen with proper funding and market mechanisms, so investment follows. Costs will fall in stages, unlocking bus and truck fleets first, then industry, aviation and (eventually) wider segments. It’s how the hydrogen transition is already playing out across Europe and Asia.
Why are we falling behind?
A major and often hidden factor is the UK’s high electricity prices and the way hydrogen is treated by policy. Despite some of the world’s best offshore wind resources, UK power prices, laden with taxes, levies and a lack of specific support for electrolytic hydrogen mean that the cost per kilo from UK production under the first Hydrogen Allocation Round (HAR1) comes in at around £9.49/kg.
Even if fuel cell vehicle prices fall, studies show you need hydrogen in the £4–6/kg range to match total cost of ownership (TCO) with a diesel HGV. At current HAR prices, hydrogen just isn’t competitive for UK hauliers or bus operators, unless diesel prices jump dramatically or the government steps in with new operating subsidies. The current trajectory simply does not close the economic gap.
But this doesn’t kill hydrogen mobility in the UK or even slow the global momentum. It just means that the hydrogen powering the next generation of trucks and buses, if the UK goes down the hydrogen route, will very likely be imported as low-cost green ammonia, liquid hydrogen or synthetic fuels from places that are enabling ultra-cheap renewables and large-scale hydrogen projects.
In other words, UK government targets are missing the mark, not because hydrogen isn’t coming to mobility, but because we risk giving up any claim to domestic manufacturing, industrial strategy, or energy security. We’ll end up importing hydrogen just as we import oil, making a mockery of energy security ambitions and missing out on the chance to anchor a UK supply chain and job creation from homegrown renewables at the very moment when the rest of the world is onshoring green energy industries.
As things stand, UK pilots and demos alone aren’t enough. But policy can and, with the right pressure, will shift, allowing the UK to catch up as momentum grows worldwide. Forecourt retailers who watch carefully and prepare now will be best placed to seize the opportunity.
Trials, buses and missed opportunities
Hydrogen buses and trucks are already running reliably, day-in, day-out, across Germany, France and China. The technology is ready. The only question is when, not if, those commercial volumes reach the UK. That’s why forecourt owners shouldn’t ignore hydrogen, but should engage smartly: ask tough questions, look for concrete demand signals, and keep options open.
What forecourt operators should watch
- Follow the real money: Watch where European and Asian investment goes – these are the first signs of scalable demand.
- Focus on industrial and HGV demand: Heavy transport and logistics fleets will bring the first serious volumes to UK stations.
- Stay flexible: Multi-fuel sites are the best hedge for an uncertain (but dynamic) technology mix.
- Vet suppliers for long-term commitment: The real players are already delivering in Europe so back suppliers who can prove it.
What are we doing?
I spent five years running a hydrogen refuelling business and work with passenger EV companies so I have a foot in both camps and see the progress and pitfalls from all angles. At Element 2 and with our partners, our approach is pragmatic optimism: pursue the real opportunities (industrial clusters, early adopter fleets), help operators plan for staged uptake and give straight advice so you aren’t caught off guard by hype or by sudden, real demand.
I also advocate for realistic, phased policy so the UK joins the global hydrogen transition instead of watching from the sidelines. My advice to operators is not to tune out the noise but learn to filter it, because the world is moving, and the UK will too.
Don’t build on promises – but do build readiness
Hydrogen’s role in the global decarbonisation story is assured. The UK’s hesitation means we’re not leading, but world momentum means forecourts still have a huge opportunity. Stay pragmatic, stay prepared and position yourself at the crossroads. When UK policy and market reality align, those ready to move will be the ones who win.
Tim Harper is a serial entrepreneur and clean-energy strategist whose career spans start-ups, policy advisory and board leadership. Author of Born to Disrupt, he founded the UK’s first hydrogen refuelling network and has advised the World Economic Forum on emerging technologies. He writes at timharper.net about where ambition meets execution in the net-zero econ.
