A think tank set up to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles has predicted that forecourts will begin to stop selling diesel within four years.
Around 28bn litres of diesel were sold in 2024, down from a peak of 30.5bn in 2018. New Automotive’s ‘death of diesel’ report also predicts that within 10 years there will only be 250,000 diesel cars left in the UK, down from 10.4m.
The outfit highlights declining sales of diesel cars, which held just 5.1% of the new-car market last year, down from almost 50% in 2016 when tax incentives encouraged their uptake due to diesel’s comparatively low CO2 emissions.
The capital, together with the central belt of Scotland, are said to be losing diesel cars faster than other areas of the country. As a result, New Automotive claims by 2030 “some filling stations in London will stop stocking diesel”, while by 2035 “many” filling stations across the country will no longer sell the fuel.
Despite these predictions, the report’s authors acknowledge that sales of diesel vans have been increasing in recent years, with the 4.5m of these vehicles registered in the UK “now burn[ing[ more diesel than ever”.
Yet the report adds: “if you layer on the fact that all new vehicles are more fuel-efficient than those they replace, and the speed of the decline of diesel cars, then it’s easy to see why the amount of diesel fuel being bought for use is declining”.
New Automotive claims the 1.5m electric cars on the road will grow to outnumber diesels by 2030, and says the decline of diesel it predicts will be “hugely beneficial” for “environmental and energy security reasons”. No comparable criticisms – such as geopolitically and ethically sensitive supply chains – are made of electric vehicles by the report.
It concludes: “It is highly likely that as diesel vehicles get scarcer, filling station owners will question how much, if any, diesel fuel they should stock. At some future point, diesel simply won’t be available at the majority of filling stations.”
The Petrol Retailers Association’s executive director, Gordon Balmer, responded by saying that PRA members ”have no definitive plans to cease selling diesel”, but that forecourt firms ”consistently track evolving customer preferences and adjust their services in response. This is reflected in investments such as expanded retail shops, EV charging facilities and first-class valeting services.”
