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A series of factors indicates a fuel duty rise is on the cards

The Petrol Retailers Association has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves not to increase fuel duty in her upcoming Budget, due November 26.

Fuel duty has been frozen at 57.95 pence per litre since 2011, while revenue for the six months from April to September 2025 fell to £12.2bn, a drop of £26m compared to the same period last year, with rising EV usage thought to be behind the fall.

A 5ppl temporary cut, introduced in March 2022 by the Conservative government to combat rising prices caused by the Ukraine conflict, has been consistently extended, but as things stand is due to end in March 2026.

These factors, together with increasingly tight government coffers, mean some industry analysts consider an increase to fuel duty is on the cards, while activist groups have been calling for the 5ppl discount not to be extended further.

Gordon Balmer, the PRA’s executive director, has urged the Chancellor to not raise duty and keep the 5ppl discount in place, citing September’s 3.8% inflation rate and the role the price of fuel plays as a driver of inflation.

Balmer says that “forecourts are doing all they can to keep prices as low as possible, despite economic pressures”, adding:

“With inflation putting pressure on business, the last thing we need is a rise in fuel duty. We urge the Chancellor to commit to a full freeze on fuel duty and make the 5p-per-litre rebate permanent in the upcoming Budget.”

Even a 2p shift per litre on the current retail price average of £1.35 a litre on petrol and £1.43 on diesel, adds tens of thousands of pounds in extra annual spend for businesses running hundreds of vehicles. So warns Paul Holland, managing director for UK/ANZ Fleet at Corpay, owner of the Allstar fuel card. 

“When fuel goes up, everything that moves gets more expensive, and that cost works its way from fleets into shelves, suppliers and consumers,” says Holland.

 ”Meanwhile, operators are juggling petrol, diesel, EV, HVO and alternative fuels without clear long-term duty signals from government,” he adds. 

 

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